tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-66048662924367548212023-11-16T08:16:22.250-08:00Midwest Foreign Policy WonkDomestic policy can only defeat us; foreign policy can kill us.
- John F. KennedyAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-22766454039114422742014-11-16T09:45:00.001-08:002014-11-16T09:45:13.604-08:00Israel Opposing Iran Nuclear Talks to Maintain Status Quo?Robert Hunt, former US Ambassador to NATO, has published a piece today in which he discussing what he believes is the REAL reason Israel is so adamantly against ANY nuclear accord between the US and Iran: Israel wants Iran to remain the "boogeymen" of the Middle East.<br />
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Israel of course is not the only nation in that region that would prefer this image of Iran remain no matter what..<br />
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Kudos to Mr. Hunter on a piece somewhat out of left field when it comes to these nuclear talks..<br />
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<a href="http://www.lobelog.com/why-israel-opposes-a-final-nuclear-deal-with-iran-and-what-to-do-about-it/" target="_blank">Why Israel Opposes A Final Nuclear Deal with Iran and What to Do Abort It- LobeLog</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-18238011551745017332014-11-11T13:02:00.000-08:002014-11-11T13:02:13.522-08:00Syrian Nuclear Scientists Assassinated...Possible Iranian Connection?First, the headline:<div>
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<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/10/us-mideast-crisis-nuclear-idUSKCN0IU0XQ20141110" target="_blank">Five nuclear engineers, one of them Iranian, killed in Syria- Reuters</a></div>
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<a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/10/nuclear-scientists-syria-killed_n_6132296.html" target="_blank">Attack in Syria's Capital Kills 4 Nuclear Scientists- Huffington Post</a></div>
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While a story of Syrian government scientists/engineers being killed would normally be a bit lost in the multitude of news concerning Syria's ongoing civil war, but it's that last bit of the headline, "one of them Iranian" that has caught many observers' eye. </div>
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Here are some the facts concerning this story that may catch your eye too:</div>
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<li>These engineers work at Syria's Der Al-Hadjar Nuclear Research Center, which is home to Syria only "true" research reactor, the SRR-1.</li>
<li>The SRR-1 is what is called a "miniature neutron source reactor" (MNSR), which is one of the smallest of its kind in the world.</li>
<li>While the reactor does uses highly-enriched uranium as its fuel (90% enriched), it uses so little fuel (just under 1 kilogram) that using this facility's current fuel or even its spent fuel (which may contain a VERY small amount of plutonium) for making nuclear weapons is not even remotely feasible.</li>
<li>However, while the MNSR can't be used to actually produce nuclear weapons, it CAN be used to experiment on methods of plutonium-extraction from spent fuel and several other non-civilian experiments. </li>
<li>The IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) in recent years got into something of a row with the Syrian government over the possibility that experiments of these type were carried out at this facility. </li>
<li>The reports of an Iranian nuclear engineer being killed in this attack is NOT confirmed by any Iranian or Syrian government sources but is being widely reported by various news agencies.</li>
<li>The area of the capital of Damascus where this attack occurred is NOT believed to be involved in any heavy fighting, so the odds of this being a random killing of government officials by "rebels" seems unlikely. </li>
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So what is the real significance of this story?</div>
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If confirmed, why is there an Iranian nuclear engineer working at the MNSR? </div>
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Who carried out this killing? Syrian "rebels" or operatives of the Israeli government?</div>
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All very good questions and regardless of their answers, I suspect this won't be the last we hear of Syrian nuclear-related activities...</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-7170050046041776612014-11-10T15:54:00.001-08:002014-11-11T11:51:17.217-08:00Senator Rand Paul: President Obama's ISIS War is IllegalNot much to comment on here.<br />
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U.S. Senator Rand Paul, a likely 2016 contender for the GOP nomination, makes the case that our current conflict with ISIS in Iraq and Syria has now exceeded the legal limits and is now unconstitutional.<br />
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That is NOT a new observation nor even a very unique one (much the same was said of the brief air war over Libya several years ago), but that doesn't mean he's wrong in making this accusation..<br />
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<a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/10/obama-s-isis-war-is-illegal.html" target="_blank">The Daily Beast- Obama's ISIS War is Illegal</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-61021475156158961662014-10-30T19:46:00.001-07:002014-10-30T19:46:32.133-07:00Cruz's Demagoguery on Israel and Iran- The American ConservativeA short and sweet piece concerning Ted Cruz's boringly predictable response to a story on Iran's nuclear program by <i>The American Conservative</i>'s very own, Daniel Larison!<br />
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<a href="http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/cruzs-demagoguery-on-israel-and-iran/" target="_blank">Cruz's Demagoguery on Israel and Iran</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-6648092174940560742014-10-29T18:44:00.002-07:002014-10-29T18:44:53.390-07:00To Beat Russian Tanks, the Baltic States Study the Georgian War- War is BoringFor those who don't know, the site <i>War is Boring</i> is arguably one of the best independent military/foreign policy sites around. It has a fairly unique style of writing and the topics tackled by its authors are hardly typical.<br />
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Today, <i>WIB</i> author Robert Buckhusen posted a piece discussing just how nervous the three Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) towards the Russians, not surprising given the events in Ukraine over the last year or so.<br />
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How are these Baltic states' militaries reacting? Smartly, by studying another conflict between the modern Russian military and a small ex-Soviet state: Georgia.<br />
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Enjoy!<br />
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<a href="https://medium.com/war-is-boring/to-beat-russian-tanks-the-baltic-states-study-another-war-710812d7e5b8" target="_blank">To Beat Russian Tanks, the Baltic States Study the Georgian War</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-67466197805865018362014-10-20T19:26:00.001-07:002014-10-20T19:26:17.812-07:00FP- Do Iraq and Syria No Longer Exist?<br />
Consider this if you will: Your country is in the midst of a serious "civil war", so serious in fact that you have lost control of one of your longest continuous borders, has your country ceased to exist as a unified & distinct entity?<br />
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That is just one of many worrying questions foreign policy wonks and world leaders alike, now tackled by <i>Foreign Policy</i> magazine's very own Joel Rayburn..<br />
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Definitely worth a read!<br />
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<a href="http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/10/20/do_iraq_and_syria_no_longer_really_exist_us_policy_roundup?utm_content=bufferc0a2f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer" target="_blank">Do Iraq & Syria No Longer Exist? - Foreign Policy Mag</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-3854461146310908102014-10-02T12:00:00.001-07:002014-10-02T12:00:25.524-07:00The Daily Beast: Goodbye to the Last of Syria's Good GuysEver since President Obama made his announcement that the US would be taking a much more active role in combating the forces of ISIS, much of the talk in Washington (both by pundits and "analysts") has been WHO exactly is the Syrian opposition forces we are pledging to help?<br />
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Are these forces the kind of freedom-loving force that NeoCons dream of or are we once again backing the "enemy of my enemy", hoping to God that those weapons and training we are giving them don't come back to bite us in the ass?<br />
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Well, Joshua Hersh of <i>The Daily Beast </i>has tackled this very question in a piece posted today:<br />
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<a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/10/02/the-idealists-who-started-syria-s-revolution-have-all-been-killed-jailed-or-exiled.html" target="_blank">Goodbye to the Last of Syria's Good Guys</a><br />
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The questions surrounding these "good rebels" are planning to arm/train to fight ISIS is far more important than many may realize.<br />
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Not only in such a strategy incredibly risky, but to be frank, our history with similar such "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" affairs is just plain terrible. All too often, these groups gladly ask for the help of the United States, only to stab us in the back THE moment it becomes politically expedient.<br />
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Further, giving how long Syria's civil war has ranged, one really has to wonder as to whether this is all MUCH too little, too late...Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-88182352286866457382014-09-28T20:35:00.000-07:002014-09-28T20:35:05.831-07:00The Daily Beast: Why Obama Can't Say His Spies Underestimated ISISAmazing how a supposedly "uber-liberal" media organization like <i>The Daily Beast</i> rather openly (and not to mention very quickly) point out possible, lets say "errors", in what President Obama said in today's interview on <i>60 Minutes</i>.<br />
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And who says the "lame-stream media" doesn't hold folks accountable?<br />
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<a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/09/28/why-obama-can-t-say-his-spies-underestimated-isis.html?via=desktop&source=twitter" target="_blank">Why Obama Can't Say His Spies Underestimated ISIS- The Daily Beast</a><br />
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<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-37411732177560752062014-08-03T12:00:00.002-07:002014-08-03T12:05:02.846-07:00Israel's Deputy Speaker of Knesset Calls for What Can Only Be Called "Ethnic Cleansing" in Gaza..<div style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.31999969482422px; margin-bottom: 6px; text-align: left;">
Before anyone gets too overly excited about me posting this, I want to state something for the record: </div>
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In this most recent conflict between Israel and her enemies based in the Gaza Strip, their actions to date are in my opinion fully justified. This doesn't mean I agree with the IDF's methods of warfare and nor I absolve Israel of the growing number of civilian casualties, just that they have the right to take action against those who wish their destruction. If we Americans were put in a similar scenario, I suspect that many of those decrying Israelis actions as wrong would have a change of heart..</div>
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A rather disturbing post has appeared on Knesset (Israel's Parliament) Deputy Speaker Moshe Feiglin's Facebook page that, if authentic, would amount to a major figure of Israel's ruling advocating for action in Gaza that would amount to nothing short of ethnic cleansing..<br />
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<a href="https://www.facebook.com/MFeiglin/posts/695450140534104" target="_blank">https://www.facebook.com/MFeiglin/posts/695450140534104</a></div>
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<a name='more'></a>Now I will say this: While this individual is a member of Israel's ruling party (Likud), he is not necessarily an ally of Prime Minister Netanyahu and is in fact something of a rival for leadership of the Likud party.<br />
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Further, this proposal, if indeed authentic, would certainly fit in line with Mr. Feiglin's positions already well known to the public. </div>
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At the bottom of this post is the original post, including a Bing Translation (taken directly from the Facebook page in question), and as one might expect, the translation does leave something to be desired, but I believe the translation is good enough to understand what Mr. Feiglin is calling for, summarized by myself:</div>
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1.) Make clear who the enemy of Israel is: Hamas and their backers (including Iran) and they are looking for nothing less than wiping Israel out of existence.</div>
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2.) IDF's mission in Gaza should be conquer the entire territory and elimination of Hamas and her allies and their supporters.</div>
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3.) Turn Gaza into Tel Aviv- This is likely in reference to the fact that modern-day Tel Aviv sits where the Arab city of Jaffa once stood before the conclusion of Israel's War of Independence in 1948. Do to various reasons, the Arab population fled the city and it was re-populated by the Israelis, becoming Tel Aviv.</div>
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4.) "Tent Cities" locations should be created by the IDF by clearing areas near the Egyptian border and the Mediterranean coastline of Gaza. Water and electricity to current populated areas will be cut off. </div>
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5.) Gaza should be divided up by the IDF into smaller, more controllable sectors, so they can better control the population and hunt down pockets of resistance. </div>
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6.) Israel will then look to find countries who would be willing to accept a large number of Gaza "migrants", possibly offering financial incentives to the countries that agree to take them.</div>
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7.) Those Palestinians currently residing in Gaza who insist on staying and have no ties to Hamas at all, will be forced to sign a statement to become Israeli citizens and given similar identification papers as Arabs who live in the East Jerusalem area. </div>
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8.) Those Israeli settlers who were removed as part of former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's "Disengagement Plan" years ago will be invited to return to their former settlement sites. </div>
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Again, I have to emphasize that this "proposal" shouldn't be taken as being representative of the current Israeli government and thus any characterization to the contrary is likely going to be done for political reasons.</div>
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Personally, what really disturbs me is that this individual is not just a "wing-nut" of the Likud Party. He was on two separate occasions received a large share of votes from within the party to be its leader (ultimately unsuccessful of course), which signals that at the very least, a large minority within the Likud Party sympathizes with these kind of ideas. </div>
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In the end however, this kind of thinking should be not surprise anyone who has studied and watched this conflict unfold over the years. Any conflict this long and bloody is bound to push at some of the participants to the extremes in an effort to achieve a lasting conclusion to the conflict and the hatred and mistrust being Israelis and Palestinians is arguably some of the worst in the world today. </div>
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This does not mean such radical and blatantly hateful proposals should be ignored, in fact during such times such ideas should be challenged loudly in the public as what they are: Disgusting, Disgraceful, and Inhuman. </div>
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The final insult comes as Mr. Feiglin concludes his post with this: "With dignity and esteem Moshe Feiglin"</div>
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<u>DISCLAIMER</u>:</div>
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All comments and/or opinions expressed in the above work are purely those of the author unless otherwise noted and do not represent that opinions/positions of any political or non-political organization or the Department of the Defense. Any/all distribution of this work MUST contain this disclaimer. </div>
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ב"ה</div>
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לכבוד<br />
ראש הממשלה בנימין נתניהו</div>
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אדוני ראש הממשלה<br />
זה עתה נודע כי החמאס ניצל את הפסקת האש בכדי לחטוף קצין. מסתבר שהמבצע הזה לא עומד להיגמר כל כך מהר.<br />
הכשלים במבצע היו טמונים בו מתחילתו כי:</div>
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א – אין לו מטרה נכונה וברורה.<br />
ב – אין מעטפת מוסרית ראויה התומכת בחיילינו.</div>
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מה שנדרש כעת הוא להפנים שאוסלו נגמר, שזו ארצנו – רק ארצנו, כולל עזה!<br />
אין שתי מדינות ואין שני עמים - יש רק מדינה אחת לעם אחד.</div>
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בעקבות ההפנמה הזו נדרש שינוי אסטרטגי עמוק ויסודי – הן בהגדרת האויב, הן בהגדרת המשימה, הן בהגדרת היעד האסטרטגי וכמובן - בהגדרת מוסר הלחימה הנכון והנדרש.</div>
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1 – הגדרת האוייב<br />
האויב האסטרטגי הוא האסלאם הערבי הקיצוני על כל גרורותיו מאיראן ועד עזה המבקש לחסל את ישראל כולה.<br />
האויב בעין הוא החמאס.<br />
(לא המנהרות, לא הרקטות – החמאס)</div>
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2 – הגדרת המשימה:<br />
כיבוש הרצועה כולה וחיסול כל הכוחות הלוחמים ותומכיהם.</div>
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3 – הגדרת היעד האסטרטגי:<br />
להפוך את עזה ליפו. עיר ישראלית פורחת עם מינימום אזרחים עוינים.</div>
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4 – הגדרת מוסר הלחימה:<br />
"אוי לרשע ואוי לשכנו"</div>
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לאור ארבעת הנקודות הללו על ישראל לבצע מיד את הפעולות הבאות:</div>
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א - צה"ל יגדיר שטחים פתוחים על גבול סיני ובסמיכות לים בהם תתרכז האוכלוסייה האזרחית- הרחק מהשטח הבנוי ואזורי השיגור והמנהור. באזורים אלו יוקמו מחנות אוהלים עד לאיתור יעדי הגירה רלוונטיים.<br />
אספקת החשמל והמים לאזורים שהיו מאוכלסים – תנותק.</div>
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ב – האזורים שהיו מאוכלסים יופגזו בכוח אש מקסימלי. כל מתקני החמאס האזרחיים והצבאיים, אמצעי הקשר והלוגיסטיקה – יחוסלו עד היסוד.</div>
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ג – צה"ל יבתר את הרצועה לאורכה ולרחבה, ירחיב מאוד את הצירים, ישתלט על אזורים שולטים וישמיד קיני ההתנגדות במידה וייוותרו כאלה.</div>
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ד – ישראל תחל באיתור מדינות ומכסות הגירה לפליטי עזה. המעוניינים להגר יזכו בחבילת סיוע כלכלית נדיבה ויגיעו לארצות הקולטות עם יכולת כלכלית משמעותית.</div>
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ה – מי שיתעקש להישאר ויוכח כי אין לו כל קשר לחמאס, יידרש לחתום באופן פומבי על הצהרת נאמנות לישראל ויקבל תעודת זהות כחולה בדומה לזו של ערביי מזרח ירושלים.</div>
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ו - עם שוך הקרבות יוחל החוק הישראלי בכל הרצועה, מגורשי גוש קטיף יוזמנו לשוב ליישוביהם והעיר עזה ובנותיה ייבנו כערי תיירות ומסחר ישראליות לכל דבר.</div>
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אדוני ראש הממשלה!<br />
זוהי שעת הכרעה גורלית בימיה של מדינת ישראל.<br />
כל גרורות האויב, מאיראן והחיזבאללה ועד דע"ש והאחים המוסלמים – חוככות כעת את ידיהן בהנאה ומכינות עצמן לסבב הבא.</div>
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אני מתריע שכל תוצאה שהיא פחות ממה שהוגדר כאן, משמעותה עידוד המשך האופנסיבה נגד ישראל. רק אם יבין החיזבאללא כיצד טופל החמס בדרום, ימנע מלשגר את 100,000 הטילים שלו - מצפון.</div>
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אני קורא לך לאמץ את האסטרטגיה המוצעת כאן.<br />
אין לי כל ספק שכמוני, עם ישראל כולו יעמוד ברוב מוחץ לימינך – אם רק תאמצנה.</div>
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בכבוד ובהערכה רבה</div>
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משה פייגלין</div>
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BH for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Prime Minister just learned that Hamas took advantage of the Truce to kidnap an officer. It turns out that this operation is not going to end so quickly.<br />
The failures in the operation were interred from the beginning because: 1 it has no proper purpose and clear.<br />
2. There is no proper moral shell that supports our troops.<br />
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What is needed now is to internalize the principles that our country is over – only our country including Gaza!<br />
No two States and two peoples – there is only one country, one people.<br />
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This internalization of strategic change required is deep and thorough, both in defining the enemy, both in defining the mission, both in defining the strategic and target-setting gives the right and necessary.<br />
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1 – setting the strategic enemy enemy is radical Islam, Western grorotav of Iran and of Gaza seeking to wipe out Israel as a whole.<br />
The enemy in the eye is Hamas.<br />
(Not the tunnels, Hamas's rocket-) 2 – setting mission: conquest of the Gaza Strip and eliminating all the warriors and their supporters.<br />
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3 – strategic target setting: turn Gaza to Tel Aviv. Israeli city blooms with hostile civilians minimum.<br />
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4 – the definition says: "Oh, fighting evil and woe to the home" in light of these four points for Israel to immediately do the following: 1. the IDF will open spaces on the Sinai border and near the sea that concentrate on the civilian population – far from the built-up areas and launch and tunneling. These areas will be set up tents to camps to locate relevant immigration targets.<br />
Electricity and water for populated areas – will be disconnected.<br />
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In the areas that were populated with iopgazo maximum firepower. The Hamas civil and military means and logistics – will be eliminated to the ground.<br />
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3. the IDF around dissecting the Gaza Strip to length and wide, extending from the delegates, will take over areas that control and destroy nests of resistance should remain like this.<br />
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4. start by locating countries Israel and immigration quotas for refugees of Gaza. Looking to migrate to win economic assistance package and will be open to countries with significant economic potential.<br />
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The who insists on staying and proven that has no connection with Hamas will be required to sign a public statement about citizenship to Israel and will receive a blue identity card is similar to that of Arabs in East Jerusalem.<br />
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And with the pull is applied Israeli law in the Gaza Strip, expelled from Gush Katif will be invited back to their settlements and Gaza City and her daughters will be built as a commercial Israeli cities and everything.<br />
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Mr. Prime Minister!<br />
This is a fateful decision in time of the State of Israel.<br />
Every enemy of Iran, metastasis and Hezbollah and the Muslim Brotherhood and דע"ש – are uncertain whether their hands with pleasure now and are preparing themselves for next round.<br />
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I had that each outcome is less than defined here means encouraging continued against Israel, initiating. Only if you understand how the patient's hizballa Hamas in the South, do not shoot the rocket his 100,000 North.<br />
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I urge you to adopt the strategy proposed here.<br />
I have no doubt realized, the entire stand with Israel in an overwhelming majority for the right – if you will follow.<br />
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With dignity and esteem Moshe feiglin<span class="fcg" style="color: #9197a3;"> (<a class="uiLinkSubtle" href="http://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fbing.com%2Ftranslator&h=DAQF5oYqK&s=1" rel="nofollow" style="color: #9197a3; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Translated by Bing</a>)</span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-46964366189695978382014-08-02T19:05:00.001-07:002014-08-02T19:05:14.132-07:00Clashes in the Caucasus Region Lead Many to Fear New War..Over the last week, there have been bloody clashes between two old enemies in the Caucasus region of Europe (or Eurasia, depending on how you ask), that have caused many (including myself) to wonder if one of the "frozen conflicts" of the post-Cold War era is about to become VERY hot..<br />
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Who are these old enemies? To explain that, a little background first..<br />
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20 years ago, one of the deadly conflicts of the post-Soviet Union finally ended with a ceasefire agreement, one that holds to this day, barely. This conflict was between the not-yet independents nations of Armenia and Azerbaijan. That's right, this conflict began BEFORE these two nations declared their independence from the Soviet Union, which should give you some hint at how deep this conflict goes..<br />
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The immediate cause of this conflict was the fact that both countries had significant minority populations of the others' majority ethnic group in their borders and rising nationalism in both regions was causing ethnic friction. In particular, the large population of ethnic Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh region within Azerbaijan's borders became the focus of conflict.<br />
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This region was not only home to a large population of Armenians, but also a decent Azerbaijani minority as well. Violence between the Armenians and the Azerbaijanis in this region, and the ethnic Armenians hope of joining with Armenia were the immediate cause of the conflict.<br />
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The conflict soon spread into full-scale war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, a war that would last for over 6 years and end with a ceasefire agreement, but no lasting armistice or peace. The Nagorno-Karabakh region became a de facto independent state and the Armenians came out as the "victors" of the overall conflict.<br />
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During the 20 years that have passed, many aspects of this conflict has changed dramatically, largely in favor of the "loser", Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is now one of the world's growing energy powers (thanks to her large petrochemical resources, which the Soviets took great advantage of during their rule over the region) and has used this new wealth to fund a large military build-up over the last decade or so.<br />
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Arms have been imported from Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and they established a quiet but quite successful relationship with Israeli arms manufacturers. This arms build-up is not unlike that accomplished by Georgia before the 2008 Georgian-Russian war..<br />
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Armenia on the other hand, has struggled economically since the conclusion of the war and thus has not been able to maintain the same kind of arms build-up as Azerbaijan has and thus has been growing concerned that Azerbaijan may attempt something similar to what Georgia attempted that sparked their war with Russia: take back territory they claim to be theirs.<br />
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Armenia has instead, done what it can to improve her defenses: allied closely with the Russia. To this day, the Russians have a large military base on Armenian soil (which houses a single division and a small unit of MiG-29 fighters). Russian military presence on Armenian soil will almost certain complicate matters for any future war..<br />
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Which brings us back to the last weeks events. Regardless of the exact causes, there have been several bloody clashes between the Azerbaijani military and the Armenian forces of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic that have left dozens dead. Further, there are growing signs that these clashes may not be the end of it.<br />
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Numerous images posted on Twitter are showing armored vehicles of the Azerbaijani military seemingly moving towards the border with the NKR, leaving we observers to wonder: is this simply precautionary movements by Azerbaijan in light of the recent clashes? Or is it the beginning of something more, prolonged..<br />
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What impact does this have on us? The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is one of the oldest and bloody to occur in the aftermath of the Soviet Union's fall and for it to re-ignite today could spell chaos throughout the entire region. Russia, who has apparently had no problem selling Azerbaijan arms while simultaneously stationing forces in Armenia, will be put in a difficult position: enter the conflict on the side of Armenia and thus entangle itself in a potential long and drawn-out war, or simply sit on the sidelines and whole the conflict remains contained just outside Russia's border.<br />
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The US too would be in a problematic position. While US interests are not necessarily at stake in such a conflict, their relationship built up with Azerbaijan over the last 10 years or so could not be easily ignored and the fact that Azerbaijan's closest ally in the region is fellow NATO-member Turkey could further complicate matters.<br />
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The short answer: such a conflict, while not well known to most in the US or the world for that matter, has all the potential for making an already volatile region tip over the edge and make the Georgian-Russian War of 2008 look like a school yard fight...<br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-14691452319165310682014-07-21T21:01:00.001-07:002014-07-21T21:01:57.092-07:00The evidence that shows Iron Dome is not working | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists<a href="http://thebulletin.org/evidence-shows-iron-dome-not-working7318#.U83hs0Z21jQ.blogger">The evidence that shows Iron Dome is not working | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists</a><br /><br />
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Rather fascinating and fact-based piece on how Israel's much talked about "Iron Dome" defense system is is NOT quite as effective as reported...<br /><br />
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Concerning, my biggest concern is not necessary how effective it is but what will happen when the relatively small number of rounds building in the last 2-3 years is soon expended and there is NOTHING but warning sirens and shelters to protect Israelis civilians..Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-35714670756765901332014-07-14T20:44:00.001-07:002014-07-14T20:44:33.245-07:00Iraqi army remains on defensive as extent of June debacle becomes clearer - Stars&Stripes<a href="http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/iraqi-army-remains-on-defensive-as-extent-of-june-debacle-becomes-clearer-1.293417?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter#.U8Sh2mLn-rs.blogger">Iraqi army remains on defensive as extent of June debacle becomes clearer - Middle East - Stripes</a><br /><br />
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This is honestly one of the best pieces written to-date concerning the scale of the Iraqi military's collapse against ISIS and its continued problems now five weeks after their offensive in Iraq began.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-37419974367159135692014-07-06T13:35:00.001-07:002014-07-06T13:35:09.636-07:00More From Spy Chiefs: Palestine Conflict, Not Iran, Is Our Top Threat – J.J. Goldberg<a href="http://jd.fo/a46IU#.U7mw6wYKXUZ.blogger">More From Spy Chiefs: Palestine Conflict, Not Iran, Is Our Top Threat – J.J. Goldberg</a><br /><br />
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Always curious how Israel's spy masters make relatively public statements (often contradicting the ruling government coalition's policies), while their American counterparts rarely say anything publicly unless being grilled by Congress and almost always hold the "party line" of the administration...<br /><br />
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IMHO, the spy chiefs' opinions on Iran's nuclear program being an "existential threat" to Israel is dead-right.<br /><br />
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A regime, like the one that rules Iran, has spent a great deal of time and effort to remain in power over the years and the thought that they, IF they had nuclear weapons, would simply "nuke" Israel at the drop of a hat is not only massively idiotic, those who express such an opinion almost certainly has some Neo-Con agenda in mind..Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-19521491619407670812014-07-02T19:36:00.001-07:002014-07-02T19:36:27.643-07:00Iraq SITREP July 02 2014My thanks to the good folks at the <b style="font-style: italic;">Institute for the Study of War</b>, who have been faithfully publishing probably the best daily situation reports on the conflict going on in Iraq between the government forces and ISIS forces anywhere on the web.<br />
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With that, here is the Iraq SITREP for 02 July 2014:<br />
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<a href="http://iswiraq.blogspot.com/2014/07/iraq-situation-report-july-2-2014.html" target="_blank">Iraq Situation Report: July 2, 2014 | Institute for the Study of War</a><br />
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<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-15134467452442296742014-07-01T17:08:00.001-07:002014-07-01T17:17:34.403-07:00All Iranian Su-25 Frogfoot attack planes have just deployed to Iraq<a href="http://theaviationist.com/2014/07/01/iranian-su-25-iraq/">All Iranian Su-25 Frogfoot attack planes have just deployed to Iraq</a><br />
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While the article from <i>The Aviationist </i>has several small errors (including the number of Su-25s in service in Iran and what variants they are), it is very interesting and does finally confirm something:<br />
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Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps has joined the war against ISIS.<br />
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For those scratching your heads about these aircraft, here is the short version: Iran actually has two separate large aviation forces.<br />
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One, is the IRIAF (Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force), which is the conventional air arm that provides primary air defense for Iran and has a fairly large (and varied) fleet of combat aircraft. This is the branch directly descended from the Imperial Iranian Air Force during the Shah's rule of Iran.<br />
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Second, is the IRGCAF (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force), which is a part of the larger Revolutionary Guard Corps. This force answers directly to the Supreme Leader of Iran and it's specific goal is to "defense the Revolution" aka the government, from outside threats. The IRGCAF has a relatively small/irregular force of combat aircraft for which the Su-25K/UBKs are the most potent. This force also controls the majority of Iran's ballistic missile forces (ranging from R-17/Shahab-1/2 to the Shahab-3 and Sejil MRBMs).<br />
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The deployment of these aircraft to Iraq is important and ground-breaking for several reasons:<br />
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1.) This is the first time the IRGCAF has ever deployed to foreign soil and represents an opportunity for IRGCAF pilots to get real combat experience with their Su-25K/UBKs for the first time.<br />
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2.) Given Iraq's recent purchase of an unknown number of similar Su-25s, who better to help train Iraqi pilots and maintainers than the IRGCAF? Further, once the Iraqi Su-25s become fully operational, the two forces can launch more coordinated attacks with these deadly close-air support aircraft and start dealing some major damage to the ISIS's forces.<br />
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For some additional "geewhiz", this is actually NOT the first time Iranian air power has deployed to foreign soil. During the late 1960's and early 1970's, the Imperial Iranian Air Force deployed transport/light attack helicopters and fighter-bombers to the Sultanate of Oman. Why? The Sultan of Oman at the time was facing a major rebellion from Marxist/Communist rebels seeking to carve out their territory independent of Oman in the Dhofar region. The Shah of Iran had a strong relationship with the then-Sultan of Oman and was more than happy to deploy a fairly substantial number of military forces to aid in his struggles against these rebels.<br />
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(Photo Courtesy the Air Combat Information Group)<br />
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So, it seems that for the second time in recent decades, Iran's military is providing support to a friendly government in the form of much needed air power...Amazing how some things remain constant in the world, regardless of "regime change", isn't it?Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-51296750679313684002014-06-28T22:20:00.001-07:002014-06-28T22:20:36.557-07:00Iraqi Military Receives Much Needed Airpower...From RussiaWithin the last six hours or so, news that broken (backed up by video evidence) that the Iraqi military has received much needed military equipment for their ongoing fighting with the terrorist group/army ISIS.<br />
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This military tech is in the form of the first combat jet aircraft to be delivered to Iraq since Saddam was in power..But now in the form you might have expected.<br />
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Instead of coming from the US, these combat jets appear to have come via Russia (whether from Russian or Belarusian stocks in unknown). See the video below for the delivery of said aircraft:<br />
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<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zr3fnVXC4U#t=167" target="_blank">Su-25s Arrive in Iraq</a><br />
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Specifically, the aircraft in question are at least two Sukhoi Su-25 "Frogfoot" ground attack aircraft. These aircraft were developed by the Soviets during the 70's and 80's as something of a counterpart to the American A-10 Warthog.<br />
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As something of an aviation buff, I'll give you a brief overview of this aircraft and why its delivery could be vital to the Iraqi government's struggle against ISIS forces:<br />
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While often compared to the A-10, the two aircraft are not strictly comparable. They were built for slightly different missions.<br />
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The A-10 was designed to be the ultimate "tank-buster", capable of dealing out incredible damage to prospective Soviet armor and also provide excellent close-air support.<br />
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The Su-25 on the other hand was designed as more a close-air support aircraft first, and a relatively able "tank-buster" second (only did later, post-Cold War variants develop the same type of armament flexibility that has been seen on A-10s since they entered production). They were first put to the test during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan (1979-1989) and proved themselves to be excellent CAS aircraft and far superior to any previous Soviet design.<br />
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These aircraft can be loaded down with up to 4 metric tons of ordnance in addition to a twin-30mm cannon capable of firing 3000 rounds per minute. Like the American A-10, they are have a "titanium bathtub" that provides the cockpit/pilot with a high-degree of protection from anti-aircraft guns/cannons, but the aircraft is not quite as well armored overall as the A-10. In exchange though, the Su-25 is considerably faster (thus allowing to engage/disengage its target faster and exposing itself to enemy fire for shorter periods of time).<br />
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By now, you probably see why such an aircraft could so valuable to the fledgling Iraqi Air Force/Army Air Corps. Such aircraft allow for much more powerful strikes against ground targets and are more likely to survive such engagements than the armed helicopters Iraqi forces have been forced to use. In other words, these Su-25s are probably the best aircraft possible (besides the A-10) to better deal with an asymmetrical forces like ISIS.<br />
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Of course, the troubling bit is, where these aircraft have come from. There have been rumors for days that Iraq was reportedly getting some aircraft from Russia (or with Russia's help) and even reports of Iran supplying aircraft to fight ISIS. Whether these aircraft are from Russia or Belarus (who has made quite a name for themselves in selling surplus Soviet-era aircraft to less-than-friendly countries all over the world), they were no doubt sold with Russia assistance/influence. This, in a way, bring the relationship between Iraq and Russia full circle. Russia (along with France) was the primary supplier of arms during Iraq's long war with Iran (1980-1988), during which Iraq become the first non-Warsaw Pact operator of the Su-25. During the 1991 Gulf War, the Allied forces destroyed many of these aircraft, some fled to Iran and the rest were eventually buried in the sand just prior to the US invasion in 2003 (for reasons that boggle the mind). Now, these same kind of aircraft have returned to Iraq after a 11 year absence to fight a very different foe than before and one that these aircraft are perfectly suited for.<br />
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The revival of military ties between Iraq and Russia (which had already begun before the ISIS invasion of Iraq), has become much more pronounced. The fact that Russia was so quick to provide much needed military equipment to Iraq's military while the US has only provided limited assistance (which includes no combat equipment, just "advisors" and recon flights), is a lesson unlikely to be forgotten by the Iraqi government...Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-54427317248429260322014-06-21T17:08:00.002-07:002014-06-21T17:08:55.867-07:00June 21 Iraq SITREP via Institute for the Study of WarCourtesy the good folks at the Institute for the Study of War...<br />
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<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-75808089932989642002014-06-21T14:01:00.001-07:002014-06-22T18:22:27.569-07:00Foreign Policy Mag- Being a Neocon Means Never Having to Say You're SorryThanks to Stephen Walt at Foreign Policy magazine for a great piece on the continued influence of the Neocons, aka Lord Cheney and his faithful and idiotic minions (no, not the cute minions from <i>Despicable Me</i>, these minions aren't that smart..).<br />
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<a href="http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/06/20/being_a_neocon_means_never_having_to_say_you_re_sorry_dick_cheney_william_kristol" target="_blank">Being a Neocon Means Never Having to Say You're Sorry</a></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-61654408315538504902014-06-15T18:10:00.002-07:002014-06-15T18:10:15.680-07:00Good Links for Keeping an Eye on Events in IraqFor those of us trying to make some sense of what is going on in Iraq, the "news" hasn't exactly been the most reliable source of information.<br />
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Thus I've been searching the net for good sites with knowledgeable reports on the events in Iraq between Iraqi military/security forces and the ISIS/ISIL.<br />
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Here is the list of sites I have found so far:<br />
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<a href="http://www.understandingwar.org/" target="_blank">Institute for the Study of War</a><br />
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<a href="http://www.longwarjournal.org/#" target="_blank">The Long War Journal</a><br />
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<a href="http://www.blogsofwar.com/" target="_blank">Blogs of War</a><br />
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I've also decided to add these sites to my blog list on the site so my readers can be better informed!Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-36914111045476345742014-06-10T18:59:00.000-07:002014-06-10T19:01:42.395-07:00Sunni Islamists Take Iraq's 2nd Largest City..Beginning of a Much Wider Conflict?The much feared spill-over of Syria's civil war has now been truly realized..the forces of the Islamic State of Iraq & Syria have now captured Mosul, Iraq's second-largest city.<br />
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While this is hardly the first time the ISIS has launched raids and military attacks into Iraq (making their first impressions with attack and partial occupation of Fallujah), the capture of such a major population center is just ONE of many disturbing elements to this news.<br />
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Per the reporting/analysis at the <a href="https://medium.com/war-is-boring/islamists-knock-out-iraqi-m-1-tanks-and-mraps-seize-mosul-9c58d39ac0ef" target="_blank">War is Boring</a><i> </i>site, the attack in Mosul began and gained its initial success due to apparently unpreparedness of the Iraqi government forces (several American-built M1A1s were sitting with their hatches open, allowing ISIS forces to simply throw grenades inside!), picked up the momentum in the battle.<br />
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But what appears to have at least aided in the ISIS's victory was the support of local population.<br />
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Just as with the ISIS's previous military engagements in the Anbar province of Iraq (home of the cities of Fallujah and Ramadi), there seems to at least some strong support among the local Sunni Arab population for the ISIS's mission against the Iraqi government of Prime Minister Maliki.<br />
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Now it appears the ISIS could be setting their sights on the city of Tikrit, notable for being birthplace of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein and the legendary Arab/Muslim military commander Saladin (famous for his recapture of Jerusalem from Crusader forces and his many later clashes with King Richard of England). With this city large Sunni-Arab population and historic ties to the former regime, the ISIS could again find a relatively receptive populace.<br />
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Why is this such a huge factor?<br />
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Think of it this way, with the local populace suspicious and distrusting of the government already, the lack of local support for the government forces can reek havoc on a military unit's morale. Further, such an environment has these forces being treated more like a occupying force instead of a national unifying force for which the populace can always depend upon and rally around.<br />
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Beyond the ISIS's immediate goals and plans, I personally see a far more disturbing possibility emerging from the ISIS's renewed success: Not only re-igniting Iraq's sectarian conflict to a scale not seen since shortly after Operation Iraqi Freedom, but the expanding of sectarian (Shia vs Sunni) for the entire region.<br />
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Already, Iraq requested and received military aid from neighbor Iran for the previous heavy-fighting in the Anbar province and now there are growing signs that Iran could become more involved in the conflict.<br />
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This is further complicated by the fact that Iran has committed a good deal of military and financial support to their ally Assad in Syria's seemingly never-ending civil war, a war in which the ISIS is a major force within the "rebel" forces.<br />
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Add to this the fact that the current Iraqi government has been so friendly to both the Iranian and Syrian governments is one of the major complaints Iraq's Sunni-Arab community..and you can start to see how much more complicated and dangerous this conflict could before VERY QUICKLY.<br />
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The idea of sectarian conflict between Sunni and Shia forces from the coast of the Mediterranean to the shores of the Persian Gulf is not only frightening..it's becoming more and more possible everyday. <br />
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Kudos the folks at the <i>War is Boring</i> for such an informative piece!<br />
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<u>DISCLAIMER</u>:</div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #666666; font-family: 'Trebuchet MS', Trebuchet, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.479999542236328px; text-align: center;">
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All comments and/or opinions expressed in the above work are purely those of the author unless otherwise noted and do not represent that opinions/positions of any political or non-political organization or the Department of the Defense. Any/all distribution of this work MUST contain this disclaimer. </div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-10999915177975620222014-05-29T20:06:00.001-07:002014-05-29T20:06:13.915-07:00Assad-loving Va. pol defends viewsI interrupt your regularly scheduled foreign policy news for a story out of left field...Enjoy!<br /><br />
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<a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2014/05/richard-black-bashar-assad-syria-praise-virginia-state-senator-107214.html#.U4f0qRj2f1U.blogger">Assad-loving Va. pol defends views</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-24400140909509106872014-05-28T17:21:00.001-07:002014-05-28T17:21:20.390-07:00Obamas foreign policy speech: 5 takeawaysA solid analysis of President Obama's recent speech at West Point..Have to love the first "takeaway".<br /><br />
<br /><br />
<a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2014/05/barack-obama-west-point-commencement-foreign-policy-speech-takeaways-107178.html#.U4Z9TFoHjBs.blogger">Obamas foreign policy speech: 5 takeaways</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-86298482880341935222014-05-26T18:28:00.001-07:002014-05-26T18:32:00.671-07:00Syrian rebels describe US-backed training in Qatar in new documentary - Middle East - StripesAn interesting, and curiously timed, piece of news concerning US assistance to Syrian rebel forces via PBS's <i>Frontline </i>news program.<br />
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<a href="http://www.stripes.com/news/middle-east/syrian-rebels-describe-us-backed-training-in-qatar-in-new-documentary-1.285516#.U4PqJB45PlY.blogger">Syrian rebels describe US-backed training in Qatar in new documentary - Middle East - Stripes</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-65851458185191894232014-05-26T18:26:00.001-07:002014-05-26T18:26:29.254-07:00Somalia Is at Peace - Somalia Is at War - War Is BoringA solid piece on the both improving, and simultaneously deteriorating situation going on in Somalia today via <i>War is Boring's</i> Peter Dorrie.<br />
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<a href="https://medium.com/war-is-boring/edb1e966bc2f" target="_blank">Somalia Is at Peace - Somalia Is at War - War Is Boring</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6604866292436754821.post-61805199282049552382014-05-26T18:21:00.002-07:002014-05-26T18:21:45.490-07:00Iran Knows the Secrets of America's Stealth Drone - War is BoringKudos to Jassem Al Salami of the <i>War is Boring</i> website for this fascinating and fairly in-depth article on what "secrets" Iranian military personnel may have pulled from the secretive RQ-170 Sentinel drone they captured back in 2011.<br />
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<a href="https://medium.com/war-is-boring/f3fc9b2c087a" target="_blank">Iran Knows the Secrets of America's Stealth Drone - War is Boring</a>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01826312423442122732noreply@blogger.com0